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Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Arena Barueri
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Mauricio
Assist: Vitor Roque
51'
Piquerez J.
55'
Sub
Luan Silva In: Danielzinho
Out: Luan Silva

AI Match Summary

Palmeiras in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Palmeiras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Palmeiras
17%
Draws
13%
Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Palmeiras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Palmeiras have won more games recently than Sao Paulo.
  • Palmeiras are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Palmeiras here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Palmeiras Sao Paulo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 20 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2 1
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Jan 24, 2026 Paulista
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
3:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras
2:3
May 11, 2025 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Palmeiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Mauricio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Sao Paulo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Palmeiras 77 / 100
Sao Paulo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Palmeiras Sao Paulo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palmeiras scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Sao Paulo has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Palmeiras remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Palmeiras VS Sao Paulo
2 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Novorizontino2
Santos1
Portuguesa1
Corinthians2
Palmeiras4
Capivariano0
Bragantino1
Sao Paulo2
Semi-finals
Novorizontino1
Corinthians0
Palmeiras2
Sao Paulo1
Final
Novorizontino1
Palmeiras3