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Panaderia vs Arucas

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Robaina T.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 game between Panaderia and Arucas finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Panaderia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Panaderia
39%
Draws
31%
Arucas
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Panaderia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 68%
Arucas Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panaderia Arucas
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 9 11
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Arucas
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Panaderia
0:1
Feb 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Panaderia
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Arucas
1:3
Apr 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Panaderia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panaderia Compare

Top Goalscorer Robaina T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Arucas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panaderia 41 / 100
Arucas 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panaderia Arucas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Panaderia scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Arucas has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Panaderia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Panaderia VS Arucas
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Panaderia

(Home)
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2
UD San Fernando
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1
Panaderia
25 Apr
Panaderia
1 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 7

Arucas

(Away)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 (Play Offs)