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Panaderia vs Herbania

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
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Match Events

25' Event
Morales A.
82'
Daniel H.
82'
Daniel H.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between Panaderia and Herbania finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Herbania.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Panaderia
35%
Draws
25%
Herbania
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Panaderia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Herbania haven't matched Panaderia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Panaderia's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Panaderia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 20%
Herbania Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Panaderia Herbania
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 9 10
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.45 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Herbania
0:3
Nov 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Herbania vs Panaderia
0:1
Apr 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs Herbania
1:0
Nov 30, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Herbania vs Panaderia
0:3
Jan 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Herbania vs Panaderia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Panaderia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Herbania Compare

Top Goalscorer Justicia G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Morales A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Panaderia 76 / 100
Herbania 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Panaderia Herbania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Panaderia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Herbania's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Panaderia found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Panaderia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Panaderia VS Herbania
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Panaderia

(Home)
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3
Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2
Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2
UD San Fernando
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
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Herbania

(Away)
10 May
Herbania
1 : 1
Atletico Paso
03 May
SD Tenisca
4 : 0
Herbania
25 Apr
Herbania
1 : 0
Real Union Tenerife
22 Apr
Herbania
1 : 1
Telde
18 Apr
Tamaraceite
4 : 1
Herbania
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)