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Papua New Guinea U17 vs New Caledonia U17

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U17 2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Papua New Guinea U17 play New Caledonia U17 in the OFC Championship U17 2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, Papua New Guinea U17 averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.61 conceded. New Caledonia U17 averaged 2.54 goals scored and 3.09 conceded. In past meetings, Papua New Guinea U17 won 0, New Caledonia U17 won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 12, 2017 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.60 for Papua New Guinea U17 and 1.26 for New Caledonia U17. This points to a New Caledonia U17 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Papua New Guinea U17
15%
Draws
50%
New Caledonia U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Caledonia U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Papua New Guinea U17 picked up more points recently compared to New Caledonia U17.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.60 vs 1.26 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Papua New Guinea U17 Clean Sheet 19%
New Caledonia U17 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Papua New Guinea U17 New Caledonia U17
Matches Played 18 35
Wins 6 15
Draws 3 3
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.28 2.54
Goals Conceded 1.61 3.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.20 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.40 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2017 OFC Championship U16
New Caledonia U17 vs Papua New Guinea U17
3:2
Jan 21, 2015 OFC Championship U16
Papua New Guinea U17 vs New Caledonia U17
1:2
Apr 23, 2013 OFC Championship U16
Papua New Guinea U17 vs New Caledonia U17
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea U17 35 / 100
New Caledonia U17 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Papua New Guinea U17 New Caledonia U17

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: New Caledonia U17 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.2%
1.37
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Papua New Guinea U17 attacking → ← attacking New Caledonia U17

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Papua New Guinea U17 scored in 61% of their last 18 games.

New Caledonia U17 let in goals in 77% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Papua New Guinea U17 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

New Caledonia U17 lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 48
0.20 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.40 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1New Zealand U17550029:515
2New Caledonia U17540122:812
3Papua New Guinea U1752129:57
4Fiji U17521210:127
5Samoa U1751047:223
6Cook Islands U1750052:270
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tahiti U17440029:012
2Vanuatu U17430124:39
3Solomon Islands U17420224:66
4Tonga U1741033:323
5American Samoa U1740040:390