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Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games
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AI Match Summary

Tahiti in this Pacific Games tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Papua New Guinea
6%
Draws
4%
Tahiti
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tahiti have won more games recently than Papua New Guinea.
  • Model gives Papua New Guinea a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Tahiti arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tahiti, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 18%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Papua New Guinea Tahiti
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 14 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti
1:1
Nov 30, 2023 Pacific Games
Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti
0:2
Mar 29, 2017 World Championship
Tahiti vs Papua New Guinea
1:2
Mar 23, 2017 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti
1:3
Jun 1, 2016 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Papua New Guinea 85 / 100
Tahiti 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Papua New Guinea Tahiti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Papua New Guinea found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Defensive concern: Tahiti conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Papua New Guinea remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Papua New Guinea VS Tahiti
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Papua New Guinea

(Home)
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
20 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 0
Fiji
13 Nov
Papua New Guinea
1 : 0
Solomon Islands
21 Dec
Vanuatu
1 : 2
Papua New Guinea
18 Dec
Solomon Islands
2 : 3
Papua New Guinea
Page 1 of 7

Tahiti

(Away)
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
30 Jun
Tahiti
2 : 1
Fiji
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

5th place
Tahiti2
Papua New Guinea0
Samoa3
Cook Islands0
Semi-finals
Tahiti2
Samoa1
Cook Islands0
Papua New Guinea3