Sport Picks

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Paranoa vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Paranoa Logo

Paranoa

2 - 0
FT
Samambaia Logo

Samambaia

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Thiago Andre
34' Event
Daniel Guerreiro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Paranoa and Samambaia finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paranoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Paranoa
15%
Draws
65%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Paranoa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Samambaia taking it.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paranoa Samambaia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.26 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.52 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Samambaia
0:6
Jan 29, 2025 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Samambaia
2:0
Jan 20, 2024 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Paranoa
1:2
Mar 18, 2023 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Paranoa
2:3
Feb 15, 2018 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Paranoa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paranoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Andre
1 Goals
Assists Leader Daniel Guerreiro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Samambaia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paranoa 10 / 100
Samambaia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paranoa Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Attacking prowess: Paranoa scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Samambaia let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Paranoa stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paranoa VS Samambaia
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paranoa

(Home)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)