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Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paraty play Santa Cruz RJ in the Carioca B2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Paraty averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Santa Cruz RJ averaged 2.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Paraty won 1, Santa Cruz RJ won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 6, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Paraty and 1.25 for Santa Cruz RJ. This points to a Santa Cruz RJ double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Paraty
17%
Draws
51%
Santa Cruz RJ
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Santa Cruz RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Paraty picked up more points recently compared to Santa Cruz RJ.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Paraty Clean Sheet 19%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paraty Santa Cruz RJ
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.67 2.35
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2025 Carioca B2
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
0:1
Sep 4, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Paraty
2:1
Jul 3, 2025 Carioca C
Paraty vs Santa Cruz RJ
3:3
Jun 9, 2024 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Paraty
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paraty Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Santa Cruz RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Jorge Eduardo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paraty 33 / 100
Santa Cruz RJ 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paraty Santa Cruz RJ

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santa Cruz RJ or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Paraty attacking → ← attacking Santa Cruz RJ

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraty scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Santa Cruz RJ let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Paraty went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santa Cruz RJ lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 65
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Santa Cruz RJ871014:322
2Belford Roxo851217:816
3Goytacaz851213:816
4Macae841313:513
5Serra Macaense83419:713
6Paraty82249:108
77 de Abril822411:138
8FC Rio de Janeiro81077:253
9Barra Mansa80264:182