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Paredes vs Sanjoanense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Balelo
Assist: Macedo Z.
31'
Ferreira P.
34'
Erik

AI Match Summary

Paredes in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paredes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Paredes
15%
Draws
32%
Sanjoanense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Very High Confidence
  • Sanjoanense haven't matched Paredes's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Paredes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Paredes Clean Sheet 68%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paredes Sanjoanense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 3
Draws 9 11
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sanjoanense
3:1
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sanjoanense
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
2:2
Feb 18, 2023 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Paredes
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paredes Compare

Top Goalscorer Balelo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erik
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sanjoanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Serra A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paredes 95 / 100
Sanjoanense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paredes Sanjoanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanjoanense has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Paredes remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Sanjoanense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paredes VS Sanjoanense
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paredes

(Home)
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
01 Aug
Paredes
4 : 2
Lusitania FC
22 Jul
AFS
2 : 4
Paredes
18 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 0
Paredes
03 May
Paredes
2 : 2
AD Marco 09
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Sanjoanense

(Away)
18 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 1
AD Fafe
15 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 3
FC Felgueiras
03 May
Sao Joao de Ver
2 : 1
Sanjoanense
26 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Paredes
19 Apr
Braga B
1 : 2
Sanjoanense
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