Sport Picks

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Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Tambedou M.
4' Event
Valja H.
(Penalty)
7'
Sub
Poder J. In: Limberg M.
Out: Poder J.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Parnu JK Vaprus and Kalju finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Parnu JK Vaprus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Parnu JK Vaprus
11%
Draws
9%
Kalju
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Kalju carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Parnu JK Vaprus are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 17%
Kalju Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus Kalju
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 3 8
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 2 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju
3:1
Apr 26, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Jun 27, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Valja H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vallik V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Kalju Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 75 / 100
Kalju 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus Kalju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Parnu JK Vaprus scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Kalju's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Parnu JK Vaprus remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus VS Kalju
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Home)
21 Jul
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1 : 4
Parnu JK Vaprus
18 Jul
Narva
3 : 1
Parnu JK Vaprus
11 Jul
Parnu JK Vaprus
5 : 1
Tammeka Tartu
04 Jul
Paide Linnameeskond
3 : 1
Parnu JK Vaprus
26 Jun
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Kuressaare
Page 1 of 6

Kalju

(Away)
23 Jul
Shelbourne
5 : 2
Kalju
19 Jul
Kuressaare
0 : 0
Kalju
16 Jul
Linfield
2 : 2
Kalju
09 Jul
Kalju
1 : 0
Linfield
03 Jul
Nomme Utd
1 : 3
Kalju
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora19120739:2136
3Kalju20105533:1635
4Paide Linnameeskond2095632:2832
5Parnu JK Vaprus20821028:3826
6Tammeka Tartu1882821:2626
7Nomme Utd20811139:4625
8Harju JK Laagri20811130:3425
9Kuressaare20531219:3318
10Narva20411515:4713
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)