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Pasaia vs Tolosa

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022
Pasaia Logo

Pasaia

1 - 0
FT
Tolosa Logo

Tolosa

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 game between Pasaia and Tolosa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pasaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Pasaia
15%
Draws
0%
Tolosa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pasaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Tolosa haven't matched Pasaia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Pasaia's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 68%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia Tolosa
Matches Played 44 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 11 3
Losses 22 21
Goals Scored 0.84 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.45 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Tolosa
1:0
Nov 20, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Pasaia
0:1
Mar 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Pasaia
0:0
Nov 1, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Tolosa
0:2
Mar 25, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Tolosa
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 50 / 100
Tolosa 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia Tolosa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pasaia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tolosa let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Tolosa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Pasaia scored in 52% of their last 44 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
19 Aug
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Pasaia
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
Page 1 of 9

Tolosa

(Away)
29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4
Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1
Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2
Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4
Amurrio Club
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alaves B 38 21 13 4 72:31 76
2 Beasain 38 19 13 6 65:36 70
3 Portugalete 38 19 13 6 60:33 70
4 Barakaldo 38 20 9 9 64:46 69
5 Basconia 38 18 11 9 45:32 65
6 CD Vitoria 38 16 11 11 55:49 59
7 San Ignacio 38 17 7 14 57:48 58
8 SCD Durango 38 13 18 7 42:29 57
9 Leioa 38 15 11 12 55:38 56
10 Anaitasuna FT 38 14 10 14 48:49 52
11 Lagun Onak 38 13 12 13 42:44 51
12 Pasaia 38 13 11 14 36:43 50
13 SD Deusto 38 11 16 11 42:40 49
14 Urduliz FT 38 12 9 17 39:57 45
15 Aurrera Ondarroa 38 10 8 20 36:55 38
16 Santutxu FC 38 8 14 16 42:60 38
17 Uritarra 38 10 8 20 38:52 38
18 Amurrio Club 38 8 13 17 39:45 37
19 Beti Gazte 38 6 8 24 34:80 26
20 Tolosa 38 7 5 26 43:87 26
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2021/2022 (Play Offs)