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Pau vs Boulogne

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Nouste Camp, Pau
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
El Farissi A.
37'
Boyer J.
42'
Beusnard S.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Pau and Boulogne finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Boulogne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Pau
44%
Draws
20%
Boulogne
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Boulogne haven't matched Pau's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Pau Clean Sheet 16%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Boulogne
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 4 9
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 2 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Boulogne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Pau
0:3
May 7, 2020 Ligue 3
Pau vs Boulogne
0:0
Dec 20, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
0:0
Mar 21, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pau Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Boulogne Compare

Top Goalscorer Lecolier M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Farissi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 36 / 100
Boulogne 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Boulogne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BOU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (26 games).

Boulogne has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Boulogne registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Boulogne
1 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
25 Jul
Real Sociedad B
4 : 0
Pau
21 Jul
Espanyol
4 : 0
Pau
17 Jul
Pau
3 : 0
Tarbes
11 Jul
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Pau
09 May
Reims
5 : 3
Pau
Page 1 of 6

Boulogne

(Away)
25 Jul
Boulogne
0 : 1
Rouen
24 Jul
Amiens SC
0 : 1
Boulogne
18 Jul
Lens
4 : 1
Boulogne
15 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Boulogne
08 Jul
Boulogne
0 : 1
Versailles
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)