Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pau vs Boulogne

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Nouste Camp, Pau
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
El Farissi A.
37'
Boyer J.
42'
Beusnard S.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Pau and Boulogne finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Boulogne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Pau
35%
Draws
29%
Boulogne
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Boulogne haven't matched Pau's recent run of results.
  • Pau are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Pau Clean Sheet 68%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 21%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Boulogne
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 6
Draws 5 12
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.19 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Boulogne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Pau
0:3
May 7, 2020 Ligue 3
Pau vs Boulogne
0:0
Dec 20, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
0:0
Mar 21, 2019 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Pau
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pau Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Boulogne Compare

Top Goalscorer Lecolier M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Farissi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 59 / 100
Boulogne 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Boulogne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Pau stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Boulogne has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Boulogne
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
18 Sept
Pau
2 : 0
Dunkerque
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
21 Aug
Pau
0 : 1
Nancy
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Boulogne

(Away)
19 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 2
Nantes
11 Sept
Clermont
0 : 0
Boulogne
04 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 1
Dijon
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
21 Aug
Boulogne
1 : 1
Red Star
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)