Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pau vs Montpellier

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Nouste Camp, Pau
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Sub
Sissoko O. In: Sadik O.
Out: Sissoko O.
45'
Jullien C.
46'
Sub
Issoufou Y. In: Junior Pereira da Silva E.
Out: Issoufou Y.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Pau
44%
Draws
20%
Montpellier
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Montpellier have won more games recently than Pau.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Pau have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Pau Clean Sheet 11%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pau Montpellier
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 9 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Montpellier
0:0
Dec 6, 2025 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Pau
0:1
Jan 6, 2023 Coupe de France
Pau vs Montpellier
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pau 35 / 100
Montpellier 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pau Montpellier

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MNT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pau's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Montpellier let in goals in 56% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.33 goals.

Pau went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pau VS Montpellier
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pau

(Home)
11 Jul
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Pau
09 May
Reims
5 : 3
Pau
02 May
Pau
1 : 3
Nancy
24 Apr
Annecy
5 : 1
Pau
17 Apr
Pau
2 : 1
Guingamp
Page 1 of 6

Montpellier

(Away)
11 Jul
Montpellier
3 : 2
Aubagne FC
09 May
Red Star
1 : 1
Montpellier
02 May
Montpellier
1 : 2
Clermont
24 Apr
Amiens SC
0 : 2
Montpellier
17 Apr
Montpellier
2 : 1
Grenoble
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)