Sport Picks

Brazil

Copa FGF 2025 Estadio Boca do Lobo

Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pelotas play Esportivo Bento Goncalves in the Copa FGF 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pelotas averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Esportivo Bento Goncalves averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. In past meetings, Pelotas won 1, Esportivo Bento Goncalves won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 12, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Pelotas and 1.00 for Esportivo Bento Goncalves. This points to a Pelotas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Pelotas

19%

Draws

34%

Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Pelotas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Pelotas picked up more points recently compared to Esportivo Bento Goncalves.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Pelotas Clean Sheet 23%

Esportivo Bento Goncalves Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pelotas	Esportivo Bento Goncalves
Matches Played	31	31
Wins	11	8
Draws	10	7
Losses	10	16
Goals Scored	1.35	1.06
Goals Conceded	1.1	1.26
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2025 Copa FGF

Pelotas vs Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Possession: 55% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Apr 1, 2021 Gaucho

Pelotas vs Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Possession: 58% - 53% Cards: 3 - 4

0:2

Mar 15, 2020 Gaucho

Esportivo Bento Goncalves vs Pelotas

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Jan 9, 2020 Club Friendly

Pelotas vs Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Jan 18, 2014 Gaucho

Esportivo Bento Goncalves vs Pelotas

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 0 - 4

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pelotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Roberto J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Esportivo Bento Goncalves Compare

Top Goalscorer Igor Souza

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pelotas 47 / 100

Esportivo Bento Goncalves 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pelotas Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pelotas or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pelotas attacking → ← attacking Esportivo Bento Goncalves

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pelotas scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Esportivo Bento Goncalves let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Pelotas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Esportivo Bento Goncalves lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 31

2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pelotas	7	5	1	1	19:3	16
2	SC Gaucho	7	4	2	1	11:3	14
3	Brasil de Pelotas	7	3	4	0	16:4	13
4	Esportivo Bento Goncalves	7	3	3	1	12:6	12
5	Aimore	7	3	1	3	9:5	10
6	EC Juventude 2	7	1	2	4	5:16	7
7	Internacional 2	7	2	0	5	10:15	6
8	Sao Gabriel	7	0	1	6	0:30	-4