Sport Picks
Penafiel vs Vilafranquense
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel 
Match Events
20'
20'
Belkheir M.
22'
22'
Simaozinho
39'
39'
Adilio
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
20%
20%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penafiel
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- Penafiel have won more games recently than Vilafranquense.
- 60% — that's where the model lands on Penafiel taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 68%
Vilafranquense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penafiel | Vilafranquense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 12 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Vilafranquense
1:1
Oct 8, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Vilafranquense vs Penafiel
0:1
Jan 15, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Vilafranquense
4:3
Aug 9, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Vilafranquense vs Penafiel
0:1
Mar 18, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Vilafranquense vs Penafiel
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penafiel Compare
Top Goalscorer Roberto
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77
Vilafranquense Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penafiel 95 / 100
Vilafranquense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penafiel Vilafranquense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penafiel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Penafiel remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Penafiel scored in 63% of their last 32 games.
Vilafranquense has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Penafiel VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Penafiel
(Home) 19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2 Penafiel
12 Sept
FC Felgueiras
1 : 2 Penafiel
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1 Academica
30 Aug
FC Porto B
0 : 3 Penafiel
23 Aug
Penafiel
2 : 0 Sporting CP B
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1 Academica
23 Aug
Penafiel
2 : 0 Sporting CP B
08 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 1 Portimonense
01 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 2 Braga B
01 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 2 Gil Vicente
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Vilafranquense
(Away) 28 May
Vilafranquense
1 : 1 BSAD
19 May
Leixoes
2 : 0 Vilafranquense
14 May
Vilafranquense
0 : 0 Covilha
06 May
Mafra
2 : 1 Vilafranquense
29 Apr
Vilafranquense
2 : 0 Torreense
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19 May
Leixoes
2 : 0 Vilafranquense
06 May
Mafra
2 : 1 Vilafranquense
23 Apr
Tondela
1 : 0 Vilafranquense
08 Apr
Academico Viseu
2 : 0 Vilafranquense
19 Mar
Penafiel
1 : 1 Vilafranquense
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moreirense | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 77:38 | 79 |
| 2 | SC Farense | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 57:34 | 69 |
| 3 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 55:35 | 63 |
| 4 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 51:45 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 48:40 | 51 |
| 6 | Mafra | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 46:49 | 47 |
| 7 | Vilafranquense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 42:36 | 46 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 43:37 | 46 |
| 9 | Torreense | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 38:41 | 44 |
| 10 | Oliveirense | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 51:50 | 43 |
| 11 | Tondela | 34 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 35:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Penafiel | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 36:47 | 39 |
| 13 | Nacional | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:46 | 39 |
| 14 | Benfica B | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 52:58 | 38 |
| 15 | Leixoes | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:49 | 38 |
| 16 | BSAD | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:59 | 35 |
| 17 | Trofense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 31:51 | 32 |
| 18 | Covilha | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 31:57 | 28 |
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2023/2024 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 (Promotion)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Main)
