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Penalva do Castelo vs Gondomar

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 game between Penalva do Castelo and Gondomar finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Penalva do Castelo
30%
Draws
58%
Gondomar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gondomar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gondomar come out ahead of Penalva do Castelo on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Gondomar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%
Gondomar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penalva do Castelo Gondomar
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 11
Draws 7 8
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.7 0.68
Goals Conceded 1.93 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Gondomar
1:1
Sep 16, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Gondomar vs Penalva do Castelo
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 10 / 100
Gondomar 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penalva do Castelo Gondomar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gondomar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Penalva do Castelo's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Gondomar has conceded goals in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Penalva do Castelo stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penalva do Castelo VS Gondomar
0 Goals Scored 0.63
4 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 38%
100% Over 2.5 13%
100% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Penalva do Castelo

(Home)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
Page 1 of 6

Gondomar

(Away)
13 Apr
Gondomar
0 : 0
Coimbroes
06 Apr
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Gondomar
29 Mar
Gondomar
0 : 0
Camacha
16 Mar
Regua
0 : 1
Gondomar
09 Mar
Gondomar
0 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)