Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penalva do Castelo vs SC Espinho

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SC Espinho in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored SC Espinho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Penalva do Castelo
15%
Draws
76%
SC Espinho
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SC Espinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • SC Espinho have won more games recently than Penalva do Castelo.
  • Model gives SC Espinho a 76% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%
SC Espinho Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penalva do Castelo SC Espinho
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 0.7 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.93 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 2.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs SC Espinho
1:3
Dec 2, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
SC Espinho vs Penalva do Castelo
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 10 / 100
SC Espinho 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penalva do Castelo SC Espinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SC Espinho Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Penalva do Castelo scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: SC Espinho conceded in 59% of 32 recent games.

Penalva do Castelo has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penalva do Castelo VS SC Espinho
0 Goals Scored 1.88
4 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 38%
100% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penalva do Castelo

(Home)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
Page 1 of 6

SC Espinho

(Away)
30 Aug
Cinfaes
1 : 0
SC Espinho
18 Oct
SC Espinho
0 : 1
Santa Clara
21 Sept
SC Espinho
5 : 1
Almodovar
31 Aug
Florgrade
0 : 1
SC Espinho
08 May
Santa Cruz Alvarenga
1 : 2
SC Espinho
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)