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Stadium Background

Penza vs FK Shumbrat Saransk

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Skrypnikov D.
61' Event
Chubukin A.
65' Event
Karpov K.

AI Match Summary

FK Shumbrat Saransk in this FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Shumbrat Saransk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Penza
6%
Draws
90%
FK Shumbrat Saransk
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: FK Shumbrat Saransk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • FK Shumbrat Saransk have won more games recently than Penza.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on FK Shumbrat Saransk taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Penza Clean Sheet 10%
FK Shumbrat Saransk Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penza FK Shumbrat Saransk
Matches Played 28 16
Wins 7 10
Draws 2 2
Losses 19 4
Goals Scored 1.13 2.13
Goals Conceded 2.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs FK Shumbrat Saransk
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penza Compare

Top Goalscorer Skrypnikov D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

FK Shumbrat Saransk Compare

Top Goalscorer Chubukin A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karpov K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penza 10 / 100
FK Shumbrat Saransk 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penza FK Shumbrat Saransk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Penza scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: FK Shumbrat Saransk conceded in 56% of 16 recent games.

Penza has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penza VS FK Shumbrat Saransk
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penza

(Home)
01 Jul
Penza
1 : 2
Salyut-Belgorod
27 Jun
Penza
3 : 1
FC Oryol
20 Jun
Rodina Moscow 3
9 : 1
Penza
13 Jun
Penza
2 : 3
M. Lipetsk
06 Jun
Saturn Ramenskoye
1 : 0
Penza
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FK Shumbrat Saransk

(Away)
04 Jul
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
3 : 3
FK Shumbrat Saransk
27 Jun
FK Shumbrat Saransk
2 : 0
Ryazan
20 Jun
R. Volgograd 2
0 : 1
FK Shumbrat Saransk
13 Jun
FK Shumbrat Saransk
4 : 0
Kvant Obninsk
06 Jun
Salyut-Belgorod
0 : 2
FK Shumbrat Saransk
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