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Penzugyor SE vs Kaposvar

Hungary Hungary

NB III - Southwest 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Morvai A.
42' Event
Szederkeniy A.
63' Event
Hampuk A.

AI Match Summary

The NB III - Southwest 2025/2026 game between Penzugyor SE and Kaposvar finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kaposvar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Penzugyor SE
15%
Draws
76%
Kaposvar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaposvar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Penzugyor SE haven't matched Kaposvar's recent run of results.
  • Kaposvar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular NB III - Southwest 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Kaposvar have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 49%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Penzugyor SE Clean Sheet 10%
Kaposvar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penzugyor SE Kaposvar
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 21
Draws 8 3
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 1.03 2.29
Goals Conceded 2.03 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 2.45
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 NB III - Southwest
Penzugyor SE vs Kaposvar
1:3
Oct 19, 2025 NB III - Southwest
Kaposvar vs Penzugyor SE
2:3
Sep 26, 2007 Hungarian Cup
Penzugyor SE vs Kaposvar
1:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penzugyor SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Morvai A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.48

Kaposvar Compare

Top Goalscorer Szederkeniy A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hampuk A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.23
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penzugyor SE 10 / 100
Kaposvar 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penzugyor SE Kaposvar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaposvar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.67 goals as a typical output.

Penzugyor SE found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Kaposvar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Penzugyor SE went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penzugyor SE VS Kaposvar
0.8 Goals Scored 2.5
2.4 Goals Conceded 1.13
80% Over 1.5 75%
80% Over 2.5 75%
60% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penzugyor SE

(Home)
22 Aug
Penzugyor SE
1 : 2
Harta SE
24 May
Pecsi MFC
1 : 0
Penzugyor SE
17 May
Penzugyor SE
2 : 2
Szekszardi
10 May
Majosi
4 : 0
Penzugyor SE
03 May
Penzugyor SE
1 : 3
Kaposvar
Page 1 of 6

Kaposvar

(Away)
19 Sept
Majosi
4 : 1
Kaposvar
12 Sept
Hatvan FC
1 : 4
Kaposvar
05 Sept
Kaposvar
0 : 1
Pecsi MFC
29 Aug
Dunaharaszti MTK
2 : 4
Kaposvar
26 Aug
Kaposvar
3 : 1
Paks II
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nagykanizsa FC 30 21 6 3 64:27 69
2 Pecsi MFC 30 20 7 3 71:25 67
3 Kaposvar 30 20 3 7 64:32 63
4 Ferencvaros II 30 17 4 9 63:43 55
5 Majosi 30 17 3 10 78:49 54
6 MTK Budapest II 30 16 4 10 62:33 52
7 Erdi 30 15 7 8 47:39 52
8 Dunaujvaros 30 13 10 7 58:42 49
9 Ivancsa 30 11 6 13 49:44 39
10 Siofok 30 11 5 14 40:55 38
11 Paks II 30 10 2 18 42:62 32
12 Szekszardi 30 9 4 17 43:75 31
13 PTE-PEAC 30 6 10 14 39:51 28
14 Balatonlelle 30 6 6 18 24:53 24
15 Penzugyor SE 30 4 8 18 31:61 20
16 Dombovari 30 0 3 27 22:106 3
Promotion - NB III - Promotion Play Offs (Main)