Sport Picks
Perugia vs US Pontedera
Italy
Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia 
Match Events
29'
29'
Montevago D.
39'
39'
Montevago D.
46'
46'
Sub
Raychev A. In: Fancelli A.
Out: Raychev A.
AI Match Summary
The Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 game between Perugia and US Pontedera finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Perugia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Perugia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Perugia come out ahead of US Pontedera on wins alone.
- Model gives Perugia a 42% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Perugia Clean Sheet 20%
US Pontedera Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Perugia | US Pontedera |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 8 | 1 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.15 | 0.78 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.22 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 9, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs US Pontedera
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie C - Group B
US Pontedera vs Perugia
2:2
Aug 17, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie C
Perugia vs US Pontedera
1:0
Apr 27, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs US Pontedera
3:0
Dec 15, 2024 Serie C - Group B
US Pontedera vs Perugia
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Perugia Compare
Top Goalscorer Montevago D.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
US Pontedera Compare
Top Goalscorer Sapola M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Perugia 42 / 100
US Pontedera 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Perugia US Pontedera
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
US Pontedera let in goals in 93% of their last 27 matches.
Attacking prowess: Perugia scored in 78% of their last 27 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Perugia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Perugia VS US Pontedera
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Perugia
(Home) 16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3 Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0 Perugia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1 Pineto
30 Aug
Vis Pesaro
2 : 2 Perugia
23 Aug
Perugia
1 : 0 Ostiamare
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3 Spezia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1 Pineto
23 Aug
Perugia
1 : 0 Ostiamare
15 Aug
Perugia
1 : 2 Vis Pesaro
02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1 Grosseto
Page 1 of 3
US Pontedera
(Away) 16 Sept
Pro Sesto
3 : 0 US Pontedera
12 Sept
US Pontedera
2 : 3 Pro Patria
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1 US Pontedera
12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1 US Pontedera
26 Apr
US Pontedera
0 : 2 Livorno
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Pro Sesto
3 : 0 US Pontedera
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1 US Pontedera
12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1 US Pontedera
18 Apr
Sambenedettese
2 : 1 US Pontedera
03 Apr
Carpi
2 : 0 US Pontedera
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arezzo | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 64:24 | 80 |
| 2 | Ascoli | 36 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 63:23 | 77 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 50:30 | 73 |
| 4 | Campobasso | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 49:37 | 59 |
| 5 | Juventus U23 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 46:43 | 53 |
| 6 | Pianese | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 37:34 | 50 |
| 7 | Pineto | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 42:45 | 50 |
| 8 | Gubbio | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 31:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Ternana | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 44:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Vis Pesaro | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 38:36 | 46 |
| 11 | Livorno | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 39:51 | 43 |
| 12 | Forli FC | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 41:52 | 40 |
| 13 | Carpi | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 35:48 | 40 |
| 14 | Perugia | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 38:44 | 38 |
| 15 | Guidonia 1937 | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 30:36 | 38 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 30:37 | 37 |
| 17 | Sassari Torres | 36 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 32:45 | 36 |
| 18 | Bra | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 37:54 | 32 |
| 19 | US Pontedera | 36 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 27:62 | 20 |
| 20 | Rimini | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)
