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Stadium Background

Philippines U23 vs Thailand U23

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship U23 Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium, Jakarta
Philippines U23 Logo

Philippines U23

1 - 3
FT
Thailand U23 Logo

Thailand U23

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Praphanth P.
Assist: Boonlha S.
46'
Sub
Reyes Dalapo U. In: Pena J.
Out: Reyes Dalapo U.
55'
Caraig J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-3. The second leg ended 1-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Philippines U23
15%
Draws
34%
Thailand U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philippines U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Thailand U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Thailand U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand U23, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Thailand U23 here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Philippines U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Thailand U23 Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philippines U23 Thailand U23
Matches Played 31 37
Wins 10 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.19 2.19
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2025 ASEAN Championship U23
Philippines U23 vs Thailand U23
1:3
Sep 6, 2023 AFC Asian Cup U23
Thailand U23 vs Philippines U23
5:0
Aug 22, 2017 Southeast Asian Games
Philippines U23 vs Thailand U23
0:2
Mar 29, 2015 AFC Asian Cup U23
Philippines U23 vs Thailand U23
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philippines U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Bisong O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Thailand U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Praphanth P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wandee S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.84
Avg xA / game 1.12

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philippines U23 29 / 100
Thailand U23 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philippines U23 Thailand U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philippines U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.

Philippines U23 scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Thailand U23 has conceded goals in 62% of their last 37 outings.

Recent resilience: Philippines U23 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Philippines U23 VS Thailand U23
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2.67 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Philippines U23

(Home)
22 Sept
Philippines U23
2 : 1
Kuwait U23
18 Sept
Philippines U23
0 : 2
Vietnam U23
15 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
5 : 1
Philippines U23
09 Sept
Philippines U23
4 : 0
Nepal U23
06 Sept
Philippines U23
1 : 0
Tajikistan U23
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Thailand U23

(Away)
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Hong Kong U23
1 : 5
Thailand U23
16 Sept
Thailand U23
3 : 2
Kyrgyzstan U23
09 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 5
United Arab Emirates U23
06 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 3
South Korea U23
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Vietnam U23 2
Philippines U23 1
Indonesia U23 2
Thailand U23 1
Final
Vietnam U23 1
Indonesia U23 0
Philippines U23 1
Thailand U23 3