Sport Picks

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Platense vs Lobos UPNFM

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Excelsior, Puerto Cortes
Fri, Sep 18, 2026
0 - 2
09:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Hinestroza Y.
23' Event
Carter D.
26'
Sub
Arriola Y. In: Portillo A.
Out: Arriola Y.

AI Match Summary

Platense host Lobos UPNFM in the Liga Nacional. This one's hard to separate. Platense have averaged 1.18 scored and 1.71 conceded recently, against Lobos UPNFM's 0.97 scored and 1.52 conceded. Head-to-head, Platense have won 3 to Lobos UPNFM's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.13 - 1.50) back Platense to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Platense
20%
Draws
40%
Lobos UPNFM
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Platense average 1.18 goals a game right now, well clear of Lobos UPNFM's 0.97.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Platense Clean Sheet 16%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Platense Lobos UPNFM
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 6
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.18 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Lobos UPNFM
4:1
Feb 26, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Platense
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Platense
1:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Lobos UPNFM
4:1
Apr 3, 2022 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Lobos UPNFM
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Platense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Carter D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Elvir S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Platense 31 / 100
Lobos UPNFM 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Platense Lobos UPNFM

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lobos UPNFM has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Platense scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Away concern: Lobos UPNFM has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Platense VS Lobos UPNFM
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Platense

(Home)
12 Sept
Estrella
2 : 2
Platense
04 Sept
Olimpia
4 : 1
Platense
29 Aug
Platense
2 : 1
Atletico Independiente
23 Aug
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Platense
15 Aug
Genesis FC
3 : 0
Platense
Page 1 of 6

Lobos UPNFM

(Away)
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
15 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
2 : 2
Estrella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 7 5 2 0 12:3 17
2 Real Espana 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
3 Olimpia 7 4 2 1 15:7 14
4 Motagua 7 4 1 2 11:7 13
5 Genesis FC 7 3 1 3 10:6 10
6 Olancho 7 2 4 1 6:5 10
7 Atletico Independiente 7 2 3 2 7:7 9
8 Estrella 7 2 3 2 13:14 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
10 Platense 7 1 2 4 6:16 5
11 CD Choloma 7 1 1 5 4:8 4
12 Juticalpa 7 1 0 6 5:17 3
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)