Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec

Poland Poland

Division 1 2025/2026 Stadion MZOS Znicz, Pruszków
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Los K.
31'
Adkonis J.
56'
Sub
Korczakowski I. In: Szczepaniak M.
Out: Korczakowski I.

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 2025/2026 game between Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stal Mielec.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
28%
Draws
22%
Stal Mielec
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Stal Mielec come out ahead of Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on wins alone.
  • Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Division 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 16%
Stal Mielec Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Stal Mielec
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 4 9
Draws 11 4
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Division 1
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Division 1
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Los K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Stal Mielec Compare

Top Goalscorer Tsykalo Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 48 / 100
Stal Mielec 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Stal Mielec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Stal Mielec conceded in 81% of 27 recent games.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki VS Stal Mielec
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

(Home)
25 Jul
Lechia Gdansk
0 : 3
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
18 Jul
Legia
2 : 1
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
17 Jul
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
0 : 2
Suwalki
11 Jul
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
2 : 2
Pogon Siedlce
07 Jul
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1 : 1
Trencin
Page 1 of 6

Stal Mielec

(Away)
17 Jul
Stal Mielec
3 : 4
Avia Swidnik
17 Jul
Stal Mielec
2 : 2
Jaroslaw
11 Jul
Stal Mielec
1 : 4
Puszcza
04 Jul
Stal Mielec
1 : 0
Sandecja Nowy S.
01 Jul
Stal Mielec
1 : 5
Podhale Nowy Targ
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wisla342011372:3271
2Slask Wroclaw341711669:4762
3KS Wieczysta Krakow34169970:4757
4Chrobry Glogow341671148:3655
5LKS Lodz341591056:4854
6Polonia Warszawa341581152:4953
7Ruch Chorzow341411954:4653
8Legnica341571252:5352
9Puszcza341213945:4049
10Polonia Bytom341381356:5047
11Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3411121151:5445
12Odra Opole3411111234:4044
13S. Rzeszow341271549:6043
14Stal Mielec341061851:6236
15Pogon Siedlce34991633:4336
16Pruszkow34772040:6828
17Leczna345121739:6227
18Tychy34582140:7423
Promotion - Ekstraklasa (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 (Main)