Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group G 2022/2023

Aprilia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pomezia play Aprilia in the Serie D - Group G 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pomezia averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Aprilia averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Pomezia won 1, Aprilia won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 23, 2023 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Pomezia and 0.81 for Aprilia. This points to a Aprilia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Pomezia

32%

Draws

35%

Aprilia

Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Aprilia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Pomezia picked up more points recently compared to Aprilia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Pomezia Clean Sheet 26%

Aprilia Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pomezia	Aprilia
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	6	7
Draws	9	10
Losses	15	13
Goals Scored	0.93	1.07
Goals Conceded	1.73	1.37
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group G

Pomezia vs Aprilia

Possession: 60% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group G

Aprilia vs Pomezia

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 4 - 3

2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pomezia 35 / 100

Aprilia 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pomezia Aprilia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aprilia or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pomezia attacking → ← attacking Aprilia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pomezia scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Aprilia let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Pomezia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Aprilia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 31

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sorrento	34	21	7	6	53:28	70
2	Paganese	34	19	11	4	56:29	68
3	Casertana	34	17	7	10	57:40	58
4	Arzachena	34	17	6	11	51:40	57
5	Lupa Frascati	34	13	11	10	44:29	50
6	Palmese 1914	34	13	10	11	50:44	49
7	Cassino	34	13	8	13	42:45	47
8	Real Monterotondo	34	12	9	13	51:55	45
9	Sarrabus Ogliastra	34	12	7	15	51:54	43
10	Tivoli Calcio	34	10	11	13	36:39	41
11	Vis Artena	34	9	14	11	24:28	41
12	Portici 1906	34	9	13	12	45:49	40
13	Angri	34	10	9	15	39:51	39
14	Atletico Uri	34	10	9	15	45:62	39
15	Ilvamaddalena	34	8	14	12	30:39	38
16	Pomezia	34	8	11	15	40:58	35
17	SS Nola 1925	34	8	11	15	44:55	35
18	Aprilia	34	8	10	16	34:47	34