Sport Picks
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
USA
NWSL Women 2025 Providence Park, Portland, OR 
Match Events
45'
45'
Torpey K.
48'
48'
Morroni P.
61'
61'
Sub
Torpey K. In: Mckenzie M.
Out: Torpey K.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Portland Thorns FC W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- San Diego Wave W haven't matched Portland Thorns FC W's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Portland Thorns FC W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Portland Thorns FC W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Portland Thorns FC W Clean Sheet 11%
San Diego Wave W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portland Thorns FC W | San Diego Wave W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.75 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 28, 2026 Club Friendly Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
3:4
Apr 30, 2026 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
2:0
Mar 26, 2026 NWSL Women
San Diego Wave W vs Portland Thorns FC W
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portland Thorns FC W Compare
Top Goalscorer Turner R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
San Diego Wave W Compare
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portland Thorns FC W 30 / 100
San Diego Wave W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portland Thorns FC W San Diego Wave W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Portland Thorns FC W scored in 84% of their last 32 outings.
San Diego Wave W has conceded goals in 81% of their last 32 outings.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Portland Thorns FC W remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Portland Thorns FC W VS San Diego Wave W
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Portland Thorns FC W
(Home) 18 Jul
Denver Summit W
2 : 1 Portland Thorns FC W
12 Jul
Seattle Reign W
2 : 0 Portland Thorns FC W
05 Jul
Portland Thorns FC W
4 : 0 Racing Louisville W
28 Jun
Portland Thorns FC W
3 : 4 San Diego Wave W
30 May
Portland Thorns FC W
2 : 2 Utah Royals W
Page 1 of 7
05 Jul
Portland Thorns FC W
4 : 0 Racing Louisville W
28 Jun
Portland Thorns FC W
3 : 4 San Diego Wave W
30 May
Portland Thorns FC W
2 : 2 Utah Royals W
21 May
Portland Thorns FC W
2 : 0 Bay FC W
17 May
Portland Thorns FC W
0 : 0 Angel City W
Page 1 of 3
San Diego Wave W
(Away) 18 Jul
Kansas City Current W
2 : 2 San Diego Wave W
12 Jul
San Diego Wave W
0 : 2 Angel City W
05 Jul
San Diego Wave W
2 : 0 Gotham FC W
28 Jun
Portland Thorns FC W
3 : 4 San Diego Wave W
04 Jun
San Diego Wave W
1 : 0 Philippines W
Page 1 of 7
18 Jul
Kansas City Current W
2 : 2 San Diego Wave W
28 Jun
Portland Thorns FC W
3 : 4 San Diego Wave W
31 May
Chicago Stars W
0 : 2 San Diego Wave W
21 May
Houston Dash W
2 : 2 San Diego Wave W
10 May
Angel City W
1 : 2 San Diego Wave W
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Washington Spirit W2
Racing Louisville W1
Portland Thorns FC W1
San Diego Wave W0
Orlando Pride W2
Seattle Reign W0
Kansas City Current W1
Gotham FC W2
Semi-finals
Washington Spirit W2
Portland Thorns FC W0
Orlando Pride W0
Gotham FC W1
Final
Washington Spirit W0
Gotham FC W1