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Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W

USA USA

NWSL Women 2025 Providence Park
Sun, Nov 9, 2025
1 - 0
08:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Torpey K.
48'
Morroni P.
61'
Sub
Torpey K. In: Mckenzie M.
Out: Torpey K.

AI Match Summary

The NWSL Women 2025 game between Portland Thorns FC W and San Diego Wave W finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Portland Thorns FC W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Portland Thorns FC W
44%
Draws
20%
San Diego Wave W
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • San Diego Wave W haven't matched Portland Thorns FC W's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Portland Thorns FC W Clean Sheet 15%
San Diego Wave W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portland Thorns FC W San Diego Wave W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Club Friendly Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
3:4
Apr 30, 2026 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
2:0
Mar 26, 2026 NWSL Women
San Diego Wave W vs Portland Thorns FC W
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 NWSL Women
Portland Thorns FC W vs San Diego Wave W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Thorns FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Turner R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

San Diego Wave W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Thorns FC W 35 / 100
San Diego Wave W 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portland Thorns FC W San Diego Wave W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Portland Thorns FC W scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: San Diego Wave W conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Portland Thorns FC W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Portland Thorns FC W VS San Diego Wave W
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Washington Spirit W2
Racing Louisville W1
Portland Thorns FC W1
San Diego Wave W0
Orlando Pride W2
Seattle Reign W0
Kansas City Current W1
Gotham FC W2
Semi-finals
Washington Spirit W2
Portland Thorns FC W0
Orlando Pride W0
Gotham FC W1
Final
Washington Spirit W0
Gotham FC W1