Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Portugal vs Denmark

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Sun, Mar 23, 2025
5 - 2
07:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ronaldo C.
Penalty Missed
38' Event
Andersen J.
Assist: Fernandes B.
Own Goal
50'
Eriksen C.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 5-2, with Portugal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Portugal
30%
Draws
33%
Denmark
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Portugal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Portugal come out ahead of Denmark on wins alone.
  • Portugal are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Portugal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Portugal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Portugal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Portugal Clean Sheet 15%
Denmark Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugal Denmark
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.1 1.73
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.91 1.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Portugal vs Denmark
5:2
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Denmark vs Portugal
1:0
Oct 8, 2015 Euro
Portugal vs Denmark
1:0
Oct 14, 2014 Euro
Denmark vs Portugal
0:1
Jun 13, 2012 Euro
Denmark vs Portugal
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugal Compare

Top Goalscorer Trincao F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ronaldo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.47
Avg xA / game 0.95

Denmark Compare

Top Goalscorer Kristensen R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eriksen C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.37
Avg xA / game 0.84

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugal 57 / 100
Denmark 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugal Denmark

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portugal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portugal scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Portugal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Denmark has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Portugal VS Denmark
2.25 Goals Scored 2.14
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.57
75% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 86%
25% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Portugal

(Home)
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1
Croatia
27 Jun
Colombia
0 : 0
Portugal
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0
Uzbekistan
17 Jun
Portugal
1 : 1
D.R. Congo
Page 1 of 6

Denmark

(Away)
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
03 Jun
D.R. Congo
0 : 0
Denmark
31 Mar
Czech Republic
3 : 2
Denmark
26 Mar
Denmark
4 : 0
North Macedonia
18 Nov
Scotland
4 : 2
Denmark
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Italy 4
Germany 5
Denmark 3
Portugal 5
Netherlands 5
Spain 6
Croatia 2
France 3
Semi-finals
Germany 1
Portugal 2
Spain 5
France 4
Final
Portugal 3
Spain 2
Germany 0
France 2