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Stadium Background

Portugalete vs Valladolid

Spain Spain

Copa del Rey
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Portugalete play Valladolid in the Copa del Rey. Portugalete are favorites here. Recently, Portugalete averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Valladolid averaged 1 goals scored and 1.61 conceded. In past meetings, Portugalete won 1, Valladolid won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 29, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Portugalete and 1.13 for Valladolid. This points to a Portugalete double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

66%
Portugalete
16%
Draws
18%
Valladolid
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence
  • Portugalete picked up more points recently compared to Valladolid.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Portugalete Clean Sheet 21%
Valladolid Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugalete Valladolid
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 20 7
Draws 5 5
Losses 5 19
Goals Scored 1.83 1
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 29, 2025 Copa del Rey
Portugalete vs Valladolid
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez X.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Valladolid Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugalete 64 / 100
Valladolid 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugalete Valladolid

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portugalete Win (1)
Secondary Pick Portugalete & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.5%
1.72
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portugalete attacking → ← attacking Valladolid

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portugalete scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Valladolid let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Portugalete went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Valladolid lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 26
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88