Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Progreso vs Wanderers

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Lopez N.
22'
Rivero R.
36'
De Leon F.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Progreso and Wanderers finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Progreso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Progreso
17%
Draws
70%
Wanderers
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Wanderers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Wanderers carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Wanderers a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Progreso Clean Sheet 17%
Wanderers Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progreso Wanderers
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
2:1
Sep 21, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
2:0
Mar 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Wanderers Compare

Top Goalscorer Luna J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 15 / 100
Wanderers 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progreso Wanderers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progreso's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Wanderers let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Progreso has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS Wanderers
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
11 Jul
Wanderers
2 : 0
Progreso
07 Jun
Progreso
1 : 2
Albion
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
23 May
Progreso
1 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6

Wanderers

(Away)
17 Jul
Club Nacional
1 : 2
Wanderers
11 Jul
Wanderers
2 : 0
Progreso
05 Jun
Wanderers
0 : 0
Danubio
31 May
Juventud
2 : 5
Wanderers
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)