Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PSV vs AZ Alkmaar

Netherlands Netherlands

Johan Cruyff Shield Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Veerman J.
25' Event
Meerdink M.
46'
Sub
Man D. In: van Bommel R.
Out: Man D.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. This leg finished 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
PSV
15%
Draws
45%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • PSV have won more games recently than AZ Alkmaar.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on AZ Alkmaar taking it.
  • PSV have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AZ Alkmaar, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
PSV Clean Sheet 13%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSV AZ Alkmaar
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 18 14
Draws 3 8
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 2.66 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Johan Cruyff Shield
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar
0:4
Mar 7, 2026 Eredivisie
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV
1:5
Jan 11, 2025 Eredivisie
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar
2:2
Oct 19, 2024 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSV Compare

Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

AZ Alkmaar Compare

Top Goalscorer Meerdink M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Weslley Patati
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSV 22 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSV AZ Alkmaar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:7
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSV found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

AZ Alkmaar has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: PSV remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

PSV VS AZ Alkmaar
3 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSV

(Home)
02 Aug
PSV
0 : 4
AZ Alkmaar
28 Jul
PSV
3 : 0
Eindhoven FC
25 Jul
PSV
1 : 3
Villarreal
18 Jul
PSV
7 : 3
Royale Union SG
11 Jul
PSV
3 : 2
Rakow Czestochowa
Page 1 of 6

AZ Alkmaar

(Away)
02 Aug
PSV
0 : 4
AZ Alkmaar
25 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
3 : 2
Olympiacos Piraeus
22 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
4 : 0
Genk
18 Jul
Waregem
1 : 1
AZ Alkmaar
15 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
0 : 1
Anderlecht
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
PSV 0
AZ Alkmaar 4