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PSV vs AZ Alkmaar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Johan Cruyff Shield Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Veerman J.
25' Event
Meerdink M.
46'
Sub
Man D. In: van Bommel R.
Out: Man D.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. This leg finished 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
PSV
20%
Draws
40%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • PSV have won more games recently than AZ Alkmaar.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on PSV taking it.
  • PSV have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AZ Alkmaar, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
PSV Clean Sheet 11%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSV AZ Alkmaar
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 15
Draws 4 8
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 2.82 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Johan Cruyff Shield
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar
0:4
Mar 7, 2026 Eredivisie
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV
1:5
Jan 11, 2025 Eredivisie
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar
2:2
Oct 19, 2024 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSV Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

AZ Alkmaar Compare

Top Goalscorer Meerdink M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Weslley Patati
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSV 47 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSV AZ Alkmaar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSV found the back of the net in 96% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

AZ Alkmaar has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: PSV remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

PSV VS AZ Alkmaar
3.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSV

(Home)
20 Sept
Twente
3 : 2
PSV
13 Sept
PSV
4 : 1
Sparta Rotterdam
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1
Shakhtar
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
30 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 6
PSV
Page 1 of 6

AZ Alkmaar

(Away)
20 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0
Telstar
16 Sept
Sunderland
1 : 0
AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1
Willem II
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3
AZ Alkmaar
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2
G.A. Eagles
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
PSV 0
AZ Alkmaar 4