Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Puebla de la Calzada vs SP Villafranca

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Garrido J.
60' Event
Ceesay I.
82'
Fernandez Gonzalez C.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between Puebla de la Calzada and SP Villafranca finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SP Villafranca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Puebla de la Calzada
17%
Draws
70%
SP Villafranca
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: SP Villafranca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SP Villafranca come out ahead of Puebla de la Calzada on wins alone.
  • Model gives SP Villafranca a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and SP Villafranca have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 14%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla de la Calzada SP Villafranca
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 10 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs SP Villafranca
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Puebla de la Calzada
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Puebla de la Calzada
2:1
Sep 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs SP Villafranca
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Top Goalscorer Garrido J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

SP Villafranca Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceesay I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla de la Calzada 15 / 100
SP Villafranca 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla de la Calzada SP Villafranca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

SP Villafranca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Puebla de la Calzada found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Puebla de la Calzada remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Puebla de la Calzada VS SP Villafranca
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla de la Calzada

(Home)
10 May
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1
AD Llerenense
26 Apr
CD Badajoz
5 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
19 Apr
Puebla de la Calzada
3 : 1
Pueblonuevo
12 Apr
Montijo
1 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
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SP Villafranca

(Away)
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4
SP Villafranca
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1
Jerez CF
26 Apr
SP Villafranca
1 : 0
Don Benito
19 Apr
Santa Amalia
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
12 Apr
SP Villafranca
0 : 2
CD Azuaga
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)