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Puszcza vs Polonia Warszawa

Poland Poland

Division 1 2025/2026 Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Puszcza play Polonia Warszawa in the Division 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Puszcza averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Polonia Warszawa averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Puszcza won 4, Polonia Warszawa won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 6, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Puszcza and 1.56 for Polonia Warszawa. This points to a Puszcza double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Puszcza
18%
Draws
37%
Polonia Warszawa
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Puszcza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Puszcza picked up more points recently compared to Polonia Warszawa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Puszcza Clean Sheet 15%
Polonia Warszawa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puszcza Polonia Warszawa
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 12 13
Draws 6 3
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Division 1
Puszcza vs Polonia Warszawa
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Division 1
Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza
1:2
Feb 27, 2025 Polish Cup
Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza
1:2
May 6, 2017 Division 2
Puszcza vs Polonia Warszawa
3:2
Oct 7, 2016 Division 2
Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puszcza Compare

Top Goalscorer Piekarski A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stec J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Polonia Warszawa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puszcza 44 / 100
Polonia Warszawa 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puszcza Polonia Warszawa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Puszcza or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Puszcza attacking → ← attacking Polonia Warszawa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puszcza scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

Polonia Warszawa let in goals in 81% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Puszcza went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Polonia Warszawa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 42
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wisla342011372:3271
2Slask Wroclaw341711669:4762
3KS Wieczysta Krakow34169970:4757
4Chrobry Glogow341671148:3655
5LKS Lodz341591056:4854
6Polonia Warszawa341581152:4953
7Ruch Chorzow341411954:4653
8Legnica341571252:5352
9Puszcza341213945:4049
10Polonia Bytom341381356:5047
11Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3411121151:5445
12Odra Opole3411111234:4044
13S. Rzeszow341271549:6043
14Stal Mielec341061851:6236
15Pogon Siedlce34991633:4336
16Pruszkow34772040:6828
17Leczna345121739:6227
18Tychy34582140:7423