Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Geoje

South Korea South Korea

K4 League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pyeongtaek Citizen play Geoje in the K4 League. Geoje are favorites here. Recently, Pyeongtaek Citizen averaged 1.48 goals scored and 2 conceded. Geoje averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Pyeongtaek Citizen won 0, Geoje won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 2.38 for Geoje. This points to a Geoje double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Pyeongtaek Citizen
15%
Draws
58%
Geoje
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Geoje

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Pyeongtaek Citizen picked up more points recently compared to Geoje.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 2.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Pyeongtaek Citizen Clean Sheet 10%
Geoje Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pyeongtaek Citizen Geoje
Matches Played 29 24
Wins 7 11
Draws 4 3
Losses 18 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.88
Goals Conceded 2 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 K4 League
Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Geoje
2:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pyeongtaek Citizen 26 / 100
Geoje 54 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pyeongtaek Citizen Geoje

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Geoje Win (2)
Secondary Pick Geoje & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pyeongtaek Citizen attacking → ← attacking Geoje

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pyeongtaek Citizen scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Geoje let in goals in 75% of their last 24 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Pyeongtaek Citizen went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Geoje lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 36
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Jinju Citizen15131138:1240
2Jincheon1594230:1131
3Geumsan Insam1566325:1724
4Jecheon Citizen1566316:1724
5Seoul Jungnang1564524:1922
6Namyangju1555518:1920
7Pyeongchang United1562719:2120
8Sejong SA1462619:2320
9Geoje1453626:2118
10Gijang United1552819:2617
11Haman1542915:2614
12Pyeongtaek Citizen15231016:329
13Seosan Pioneer14301115:369