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Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Azersun Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Qarabag Agdam play Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Qarabag Agdam averaged 2.18 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. Shamakhi averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Qarabag Agdam won 2, Shamakhi won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Qarabag Agdam and 0.93 for Shamakhi. This points to a Qarabag Agdam double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Qarabag Agdam
27%
Draws
29%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Qarabag Agdam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Qarabag Agdam picked up more points recently compared to Shamakhi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 24%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Shamakhi
Matches Played 38 31
Wins 20 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 2.18 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
0:0
Mar 4, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi
3:1
Feb 10, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
1:2
Feb 5, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Addai E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Leandro Andrade
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 44 / 100
Shamakhi 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Shamakhi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Qarabag Agdam or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Qarabag Agdam attacking → ← attacking Shamakhi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qarabag Agdam scored in 82% of their last 38 games.

Shamakhi let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Qarabag Agdam went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Shamakhi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

66 Points in last 5 39
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.86
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.71