Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Real Espana vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Francisco Morazán, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Farioli B.
29'
Garcia D.
45'
Rougier J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Real Espana and Marathon finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Real Espana
30%
Draws
27%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Real Espana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Marathon have managed 1.3 goals a game lately — Real Espana are scoring more at 1.67.
  • Model gives Real Espana a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Real Espana Clean Sheet 20%
Marathon Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Espana Marathon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.67 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Real Espana
1:1
May 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Real Espana vs Marathon
1:1
May 3, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Real Espana
1:0
Apr 3, 2026 Liga Nacional
Real Espana vs Marathon
2:0
Feb 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Real Espana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Espana Compare

Top Goalscorer Sayago D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Farioli B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Espana 42 / 100
Marathon 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Espana Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Espana's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Real Espana has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Marathon has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Real Espana VS Marathon
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Espana

(Home)
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
12 Sept
Olancho
1 : 1
Real Espana
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
30 Aug
Real Espana
2 : 1
CD Choloma
23 Aug
Marathon
1 : 1
Real Espana
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Marathon

(Away)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
2 Olimpia 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
3 Real Espana 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
2 Genesis FC 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
3 Olancho 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)