Sport Picks
Rhyl vs Caernarfon Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 Belle Vue, Rhyl 
Match Events
50'
50'
Young B.
58'
58'
Mooney P.
59'
59'
Bradley S.
AI Match Summary
Caernarfon in this FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
35%
45%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caernarfon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Caernarfon have won more games recently than Rhyl.
- Win probability leans Caernarfon's way, sitting at 90%.
- Caernarfon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Caernarfon, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Rhyl Clean Sheet 10%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rhyl | Caernarfon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 14 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 2.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 FAW Welsh Cup
Rhyl vs Caernarfon
1:2
Aug 28, 2018 League Cup
Rhyl vs Caernarfon
4:2
Jan 13, 2018 Cymru Alliance
Caernarfon vs Rhyl
1:1
Sep 9, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Rhyl vs Caernarfon
3:3
Jan 28, 2017 FAW Welsh Cup
Caernarfon vs Rhyl
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rhyl Compare
Top Goalscorer Lightfoot B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Caernarfon Compare
Top Goalscorer Young B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Clarke Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rhyl 10 / 100
Caernarfon 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rhyl Caernarfon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Rhyl found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).
H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.
Caernarfon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.
Rhyl went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Rhyl VS Caernarfon
1.75 Goals Scored 3.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Rhyl
(Home) 26 Sept
Gresford
3 : 1 Rhyl
12 Sept
Rhyl
3 : 3 Buckley
05 Sept
Bangor 1876
2 : 2 Rhyl
31 Aug
Denbigh
1 : 3 Rhyl
28 Aug
Rhyl
1 : 3 Bala
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Rhyl
3 : 3 Buckley
28 Aug
Rhyl
1 : 3 Bala
15 Aug
Rhyl
4 : 2 Caersws FC
01 Aug
Rhyl
1 : 1 Guilsfield
07 Apr
Rhyl
1 : 0 Gresford
Page 1 of 3
Caernarfon
(Away) 26 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Caernarfon
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1 Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1 Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5 Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Flint Town
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Caernarfon
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1 Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5 Caernarfon
28 Aug
Holywell Town FC
3 : 5 Caernarfon
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
