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Rockdale Ilinden vs NWS Spirit

Australia Australia

NPL NSW Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre
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AI Match Summary

Rockdale Ilinden play NWS Spirit in the NPL NSW. It looks like a close match. Recently, Rockdale Ilinden averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. NWS Spirit averaged 1.26 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Rockdale Ilinden won 2, NWS Spirit won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Rockdale Ilinden and 1.13 for NWS Spirit. This points to a Rockdale Ilinden double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Rockdale Ilinden
29%
Draws
30%
NWS Spirit
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Rockdale Ilinden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Rockdale Ilinden picked up more points recently compared to NWS Spirit.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Rockdale Ilinden Clean Sheet 21%
NWS Spirit Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rockdale Ilinden NWS Spirit
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 13 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.55 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 NPL NSW
Rockdale Ilinden vs NWS Spirit
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 NPL NSW
NWS Spirit vs Rockdale Ilinden
0:2
Sep 7, 2025 NPL NSW
NWS Spirit vs Rockdale Ilinden
1:2
Jul 19, 2025 NPL NSW
NWS Spirit vs Rockdale Ilinden
6:3
Apr 6, 2025 NPL NSW
Rockdale Ilinden vs NWS Spirit
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rockdale Ilinden Compare

Top Goalscorer Constable L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

NWS Spirit Compare

Top Goalscorer Armson S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rockdale Ilinden 41 / 100
NWS Spirit 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rockdale Ilinden NWS Spirit

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Rockdale Ilinden or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Rockdale Ilinden attacking → ← attacking NWS Spirit

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rockdale Ilinden scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

NWS Spirit let in goals in 74% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Rockdale Ilinden went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

NWS Spirit lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 44
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Marconi Stallions23174245:1455
2APIA Leichhardt23163447:2751
3Sydney Utd23153534:1748
4Rockdale Ilinden23113936:3236
5Sutherland Sharks231121036:3035
6Sydney FC U2323104932:3434
7Wollongong2395926:2932
8NWS Spirit23941027:2731
9Manly Utd2386925:2930
10Western Sydney Wanderers U2123851042:3429
11UNSW23841132:3528
12SD Raiders23751130:3926
13St. George City23671022:3725
14Blacktown City23571130:3922
15St George Saints23611622:3919
16Sydney Olympic23531525:4918