Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Third League - South-East Stadion Septemvri

Rodopa Smolyan

1 - 3

Nesebar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-East game between Rodopa Smolyan and Nesebar finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nesebar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Rodopa Smolyan

Draws

90%

Nesebar

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nesebar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Nesebar carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Nesebar's way, sitting at 90%.
Regular Third League - South-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Nesebar have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 28%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%

Rodopa Smolyan Clean Sheet 10%

Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Rodopa Smolyan	Nesebar
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	22
Draws	3	6
Losses	15	2
Goals Scored	2	3.75
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	3.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Third League - South-East

Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

1:3

Sep 28, 2025 Third League - South-East

Nesebar vs Rodopa Smolyan

Possession: 55% - 60% Cards: 2 - 3

8:0

Jun 1, 2024 Third League - South-East

Nesebar vs Rodopa Smolyan

Possession: 42% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

6:1

Nov 25, 2023 Third League - South-East

Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 0 - 4

2:4

Feb 25, 2023 Third League - South-East

Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar

Possession: 40% - 45% Cards: 0 - 1

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rodopa Smolyan 10 / 100

Nesebar 83 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Rodopa Smolyan Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NES Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Rodopa Smolyan scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Rodopa Smolyan remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Nesebar let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Rodopa Smolyan VS Nesebar

2 Goals Scored 3.75

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

88% Over 1.5 75%

75% Over 2.5 75%

50% Over 3.5 75%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nesebar	36	29	4	3	116:22	91
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	36	23	6	7	90:40	75
3	Neftochimic Burgas	36	19	9	8	53:39	66
4	Yambol 1915	36	20	6	10	72:41	66
5	Levski Karlovo	36	20	5	11	64:53	65
6	Maritsa Milevo	36	17	9	10	64:32	60
7	Spartak Plovdiv	36	15	9	12	64:58	54
8	Sozopol	36	16	6	14	50:38	54
9	OFC Haskovo	36	15	7	14	52:48	52
10	Zagorets	36	13	10	13	52:60	49
11	Rozova Dolina	36	14	6	16	45:52	48
12	Gigant Saedinenie	36	14	5	17	56:59	47
13	Rodopa Smolyan	36	14	4	18	51:70	46
14	Atletik Kuklen	36	13	3	20	43:78	42
15	Sekirovo Rakovski	36	9	8	19	30:53	35
16	Dimitrovgrad	36	10	5	21	42:82	35
17	Lok. Plovdiv II	36	9	6	21	44:53	33
18	Rakovski 2011	36	8	3	25	46:94	27
19	Asenovets	36	6	5	25	30:92	23