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RWDM Brussels vs Lierse SK

Belgium Belgium

Challenger Pro League 2025/2026 Edmond Machtens Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

RWDM Brussels play Lierse SK in the Challenger Pro League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, RWDM Brussels averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. Lierse SK averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, RWDM Brussels won 2, Lierse SK won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for RWDM Brussels and 1.50 for Lierse SK. This points to a Lierse SK double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
RWDM Brussels
30%
Draws
37%
Lierse SK
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lierse SK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • RWDM Brussels picked up more points recently compared to Lierse SK.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
RWDM Brussels Clean Sheet 16%
Lierse SK Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RWDM Brussels Lierse SK
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.34 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Challenger Pro League
RWDM Brussels vs Lierse SK
1:1
Sep 19, 2025 Challenger Pro League
Lierse SK vs RWDM Brussels
2:0
Feb 1, 2025 Challenger Pro League
Lierse SK vs RWDM Brussels
0:0
Sep 14, 2024 Challenger Pro League
RWDM Brussels vs Lierse SK
3:0
Apr 22, 2023 Challenger Pro League
Lierse SK vs RWDM Brussels
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RWDM Brussels Compare

Top Goalscorer Simbakoli U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Lierse SK Compare

Top Goalscorer Van Meirvenne C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RWDM Brussels 33 / 100
Lierse SK 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RWDM Brussels Lierse SK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lierse SK or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

RWDM Brussels attacking → ← attacking Lierse SK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RWDM Brussels scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Lierse SK let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

RWDM Brussels went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Lierse SK lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 37
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1SK Beveren32284074:2388
2Kortrijk32214759:3367
3Beerschot VA32197652:3164
4RFC Liege321651144:3953
5Lommel SK32158959:4653
6Patro Eisden32149944:4051
7Eupen321211944:3647
8Sporting Lokeren3210121048:4542
9Gent U23321251542:5141
10Lierse SK321081435:4238
11RFC Seraing328111337:4435
12Francs Borains32981533:4734
13RWDM Brussels32991450:5433
14Anderlecht U23327101546:5531
15Genk U23327101542:5931
16Club Brugge U2332562133:5521
17OC Charleroi32372226:6816