Sport Picks

Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Stadion Urozhay

Ufa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

S. Kostroma play Ufa in the FNL 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, S. Kostroma averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Ufa averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, S. Kostroma won 1, Ufa won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for S. Kostroma and 0.81 for Ufa. This points to a S. Kostroma double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

S. Kostroma

25%

Draws

37%

Ufa

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: S. Kostroma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

S. Kostroma picked up more points recently compared to Ufa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

S. Kostroma Clean Sheet 26%

Ufa Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	S. Kostroma	Ufa
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	8	9
Draws	11	5
Losses	9	14
Goals Scored	1.32	1.07
Goals Conceded	1.14	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 FNL

S. Kostroma vs Ufa

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

Feb 14, 2026 Club Friendly

S. Kostroma vs Ufa

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 0 - 1

2:0

Oct 4, 2025 FNL

Ufa vs S. Kostroma

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Nov 5, 2023 FNL 2 - Division A Gold

S. Kostroma vs Ufa

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Sep 9, 2023 FNL 2 - Division A Gold

Ufa vs S. Kostroma

Possession: 50% - 42% Cards: 3 - 4

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

S. Kostroma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Ufa Compare

Top Goalscorer Kutin D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

S. Kostroma 39 / 100

Ufa 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

S. Kostroma Ufa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: S. Kostroma or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

S. Kostroma attacking → ← attacking Ufa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

S. Kostroma scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Ufa let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

S. Kostroma went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ufa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 32

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodina Moscow	34	19	11	4	58:28	68
2	Fakel Voronezh	34	20	8	6	44:22	68
3	Ural	34	18	7	9	51:31	61
4	R. Volgograd	34	15	11	8	47:26	56
5	Kamaz	34	12	13	9	46:34	49
6	Yenisey	34	13	10	11	37:35	49
7	S. Kostroma	34	12	13	9	46:41	49
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	34	11	15	8	34:28	48
9	Torpedo Moscow	34	12	10	12	37:39	46
10	Chelyabinsk	34	10	14	10	42:40	44
11	Neftekhimik	34	10	13	11	40:41	43
12	SKA Khabarovsk	34	10	12	12	37:45	42
13	Arsenal Tula	34	8	15	11	42:44	39
14	Ulyanovsk	34	9	10	15	35:48	37
15	Ufa	34	9	10	15	32:40	37
16	Chernomorets Novorossijsk	34	9	8	17	37:49	35
17	Saratov	34	5	11	18	16:44	26
18	FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye	34	5	7	22	30:76	22