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Safa vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Safa Logo

Safa

0 - 1
FT
Al Ahed Logo

Al Ahed

Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Antar F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al Ahed in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Safa
30%
Draws
12%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Safa have won more games recently than Al Ahed.
  • Win probability leans Safa's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Safa Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Al Ahed
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.43 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
4:1
May 18, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:2
Dec 13, 2025 Premier League
Safa vs Al Ahed
0:1
Jul 12, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Antar F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa 95 / 100
Al Ahed 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Safa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Safa found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Al Ahed let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Safa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Safa VS Al Ahed
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa

(Home)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 6

Al Ahed

(Away)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)