Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Safa vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Antar F.

AI Match Summary

Al Ahed in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Safa
11%
Draws
9%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Safa average 1.5 goals a game right now, well clear of Al Ahed's 0.63.
  • Win probability leans Safa's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Safa Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Al Ahed
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 16 16
Draws 5 3
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
4:1
May 18, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:2
Dec 13, 2025 Premier League
Safa vs Al Ahed
0:1
Jul 12, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Safa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Antar F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa 86 / 100
Al Ahed 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Safa found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Al Ahed let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Safa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Safa VS Al Ahed
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa

(Home)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 7

Al Ahed

(Away)
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
12 Jul
Al Ansar
3 : 3
Al Ahed
28 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 2
Al Sahel
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ansar21172253:953
2Nejmeh SC21144342:1046
3Al Ahed21131734:2240
4Jwayya SC21115531:1438
5Safa21113730:1736
6Al Hikma2193929:2730
7Al Sahel2176822:2127
8Al-Mabarrah2157912:3622
9Al Riyadi Abbasiyah21551116:3020
10Tadamon21381012:2617
11Racing2101204:611
12Bourj113178:2010
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)