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Safa vs Al-Mabarrah

Lebanon Lebanon

Lebanese Cup 2012/2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Safa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Safa
20%
Draws
7%
Al-Mabarrah
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Safa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Safa taking it.
  • Safa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Safa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Safa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Safa Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Mabarrah Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Al-Mabarrah
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 9
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.55 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Premier League
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
4:0
Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Al-Mabarrah vs Safa
1:0
Jan 31, 2014 Premier League
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
3:1
Dec 8, 2013 Premier League
Al-Mabarrah vs Safa
2:6
Apr 6, 2013 Lebanese Cup
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa 85 / 100
Al-Mabarrah 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Al-Mabarrah

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Safa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Safa's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Al-Mabarrah's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Safa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa VS Al-Mabarrah
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa

(Home)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 7

Al-Mabarrah

(Away)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
29 Jun
Al-Mabarrah
0 : 7
Al Ansar
25 Jun
Al Hikma
4 : 2
Al-Mabarrah
21 Jun
Nejmeh SC
5 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
16 Jun
Tadamon
1 : 1
Al-Mabarrah
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley 1
Racing Bejrut 0
Tripoli SC 0
Shabab Al Sahel 1
Al Ansar 1
Tadamon 3
Safa 1
Al-Mabarrah 0
Semi-finals
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley 2
Shabab Al Sahel 3
Tadamon 0
Safa 2
Final
Shabab Al Sahel 1
Safa 2