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Saint Kitts and Nevis vs Saint Lucia

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Saint Kitts and Nevis play Saint Lucia in the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Saint Kitts and Nevis averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Saint Lucia averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. In past meetings, Saint Kitts and Nevis won 1, Saint Lucia won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Nov 16, 2023 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.72 for Saint Kitts and Nevis and 1.92 for Saint Lucia. This points to a Saint Lucia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Saint Kitts and Nevis
26%
Draws
39%
Saint Lucia
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Saint Lucia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis picked up more points recently compared to Saint Lucia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.72 vs 1.92 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Saint Kitts and Nevis Clean Sheet 10%
Saint Lucia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 4 3
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.43 1.25
Goals Conceded 2.33 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.13 3.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Kitts and Nevis vs Saint Lucia
0:0
Sep 10, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Lucia vs Saint Kitts and Nevis
2:0
Sep 4, 2014 Caribbean Cup
Saint Kitts and Nevis vs Saint Lucia
0:0
Oct 12, 2011 World Championship
Saint Kitts and Nevis vs Saint Lucia
1:1
Sep 6, 2011 World Championship
Saint Lucia vs Saint Kitts and Nevis
2:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saint Kitts and Nevis 34 / 100
Saint Lucia 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Saint Lucia or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Saint Kitts and Nevis attacking → ← attacking Saint Lucia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saint Kitts and Nevis scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Saint Lucia let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Saint Kitts and Nevis went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Saint Lucia lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 39
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.71
3.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.57

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guadeloupe650116:315
2Saint Lucia631210:610
3Sint Maarten62046:156
4Saint Kitts and Nevis61144:124
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nicaragua651017:116
2Dominican Republic631214:610
3Montserrat63039:149
4Barbados60067:260
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1French Guiana631210:610
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines630313:149
3Bermuda62228:98
4Belize62135:77
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guyana550020:515
2Puerto Rico640222:1012
3Antigua and Barbuda61149:224
4Bahamas50147:211