Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samoa vs Cook Islands

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Teufaiva Sport Stadium, Nukuʻalofa
Samoa Logo

Samoa

1 - 0
FT
Cook Islands Logo

Cook Islands

Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Simiona H.
22'
Tumua D.
22'
Kwan A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Samoa
15%
Draws
28%
Cook Islands
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Samoa have won more games recently than Cook Islands.
  • Cook Islands are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Samoa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Samoa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Samoa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Samoa Clean Sheet 18%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa Cook Islands
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 11 6
Draws 1 2
Losses 18 18
Goals Scored 1.37 0.81
Goals Conceded 3.47 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Samoa vs Cook Islands
1:0
Nov 30, 2023 Pacific Games
Samoa vs Cook Islands
3:0
Sep 2, 2015 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Samoa
1:0
Nov 23, 2011 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Samoa
2:3
Nov 12, 1996 World Championship
Samoa vs Cook Islands
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Taualai V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Cook Islands Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa 23 / 100
Cook Islands 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa Cook Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cook Islands Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cook Islands's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Difficult form: Cook Islands registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Samoa scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samoa VS Cook Islands
2.63 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Samoa

(Home)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
Page 1 of 6

Cook Islands

(Away)
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0
Cook Islands
30 Nov
Samoa
3 : 0
Cook Islands
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Samoa 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Cook Islands 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
3 Tonga 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Main)