Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Gunther Vogel, San Lorenzo
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Vera E.
Assist: Ayala L.
13' Event
Ocampos C.
30'
Rodriguez W.

AI Match Summary

Sportivo Ameliano in this Copa de Primera tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
San Lorenzo
28%
Draws
22%
Sportivo Ameliano
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: San Lorenzo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Sportivo Ameliano have won more games recently than San Lorenzo.
  • Model gives San Lorenzo a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Sportivo Ameliano arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sportivo Ameliano, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Sportivo Ameliano have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 68%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Lorenzo Sportivo Ameliano
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 9
Draws 9 12
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 0.63 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:2
Jan 31, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs San Lorenzo
1:0
Sep 25, 2021 Division Intermedia
Sportivo Ameliano vs San Lorenzo
3:0
Jun 19, 2021 Division Intermedia
San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Lorenzo Compare

Top Goalscorer Caceres L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sportivo Ameliano Compare

Top Goalscorer Vera E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ocampos C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Lorenzo 59 / 100
Sportivo Ameliano 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Lorenzo Sportivo Ameliano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Lorenzo's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Sportivo Ameliano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: San Lorenzo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Lorenzo VS Sportivo Ameliano
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Lorenzo

(Home)
25 Jul
Recoleta
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
22 May
2 de Mayo
0 : 1
San Lorenzo
17 May
San Lorenzo
0 : 0
Sp. Luqueno
10 May
San Lorenzo
1 : 0
Olimpia Asuncion
01 May
Libertad Asuncion
5 : 0
San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 6

Sportivo Ameliano

(Away)
28 Jul
Rubio Nu
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
25 Jul
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
24 May
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2
Sportivo Trinidense
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0
Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Sportivo Ameliano
3 : 2
Recoleta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)