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Santa Ana vs Carmelita Prediction & H2H Stats

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 Estadio de Piedades, Santa Ana
Sun, Apr 12, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Ana host Carmelita in the Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Carmelita have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Santa Ana have conceded 1.64 and scored 1.44. Past meetings favor Santa Ana slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 26, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.38 - 1.50) back Santa Ana to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Santa Ana
15%
Draws
45%
Carmelita
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carmelita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Santa Ana lately — more wins on the board than Carmelita.
  • Win probability leans Carmelita's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Santa Ana Clean Sheet 16%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Ana Carmelita
Matches Played 25 27
Wins 11 7
Draws 3 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.44 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
1:0
Aug 9, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
2:3
Apr 12, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Ana vs Carmelita
0:0
Feb 25, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
1:2
Nov 16, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Ana 15 / 100
Carmelita 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Ana Carmelita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmelita Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Ana found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (25 games).

Defensive concern: Carmelita conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Santa Ana has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santa Ana VS Carmelita
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Ana

(Home)
04 Oct
Santa Ana
1 : 0
Cariari Pococi
02 Oct
Cariari Pococi
1 : 2
Santa Ana
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
20 Sept
Aserri
1 : 0
Santa Ana
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
Page 1 of 5

Carmelita

(Away)
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
18 Sept
Carmelita
6 : 0
CS Uruguay
13 Sept
Cariari Pococi
1 : 1
Carmelita
07 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 2
Pitbulls
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 14 9 3 2 25:12 30
2 Inter San Carlos 14 8 4 2 25:14 28
3 Quepos FC 14 9 1 4 30:21 28
4 Santa Cruz 14 4 5 5 19:17 17
5 Grecia 14 4 5 5 16:18 17
6 AD Sarchi 14 4 5 5 19:23 17
7 Cofutpa 14 2 4 8 14:27 10
8 Dep. Upala 14 0 5 9 15:31 5
9 Municipal Turrialba 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Escorpiones 14 10 2 2 33:10 32
2 CS Uruguay 14 7 2 5 25:20 23
3 Pitbulls 14 6 4 4 20:16 22
4 FC Moravia 14 5 4 5 19:19 19
5 Cariari Pococi 14 3 6 5 19:23 15
6 Aserri 14 2 8 4 15:28 14
7 Santa Ana 13 3 3 7 19:28 12
8 Carmelita 13 2 5 6 10:16 11
9 Limon Black Star 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)