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Santa Cruz RJ vs Duque Caxiense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Fugao
63'
Goncalves Marins H.
69' Event
Pitel

AI Match Summary

The Carioca C 2025 game between Santa Cruz RJ and Duque Caxiense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz RJ.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Santa Cruz RJ
28%
Draws
50%
Duque Caxiense
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Duque Caxiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Santa Cruz RJ carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Duque Caxiense are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Carioca C 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 12%
Duque Caxiense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz RJ Duque Caxiense
Matches Played 31 12
Wins 20 3
Draws 5 1
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 2.5 2.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2025 Carioca C
Santa Cruz RJ vs Duque Caxiense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Fugao
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pitel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Duque Caxiense Compare

Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz RJ 22 / 100
Duque Caxiense 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz RJ Duque Caxiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DUQ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz RJ's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Duque Caxiense conceded in 83% of 12 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Duque Caxiense has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz RJ VS Duque Caxiense
2.5 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz RJ

(Home)
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
17 Jun
Santa Cruz RJ
0 : 5
Perolas Negras
23 Nov
Santa Cruz RJ
2 : 2
Macae
16 Nov
Macae
2 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 7

Duque Caxiense

(Away)
10 Aug
Buzios
2 : 5
Duque Caxiense
04 Aug
Duque Caxiense
0 : 1
Paraty
20 Jul
Rio Barra
2 : 1
Duque Caxiense
14 Jul
Duque Caxiense
0 : 3
Uniao Central
06 Jul
Juventus RJ
2 : 0
Duque Caxiense
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Paraty1291233:1128
2Santa Cruz RJ1283139:1427
3Riostrense1282229:1126
4Uniao Central1273234:1824
5Juventus RJ1273224:924
6EC Vera Cruz1262418:1120
7Angra dos Reis1261524:2119
8Rio Barra1140712:2412
9Buzios1240816:3312
10Duque Caxiense1231815:1910
11Caac Brazil1230910:359
12Mesquita122198:287
13Barcelona EC111195:334
Promotion - Carioca C 2025 (Play Offs)