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Santa Cruz vs Afogados da Ingazeira

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Freitas Barreto P. C.
26' Event
Rodrigo
31'
Alemao

AI Match Summary

The Pernambucano 2024 game between Santa Cruz and Afogados da Ingazeira finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Cruz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Santa Cruz
6%
Draws
4%
Afogados da Ingazeira
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Afogados da Ingazeira haven't matched Santa Cruz's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Santa Cruz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Pernambucano 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Santa Cruz here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 68%
Afogados da Ingazeira Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Afogados da Ingazeira
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 17 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.63 0
Goals Conceded 0.88 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Afogados da Ingazeira
2:0
Feb 19, 2024 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Afogados da Ingazeira
5:1
Jan 12, 2023 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Afogados da Ingazeira
1:1
Feb 3, 2022 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Afogados da Ingazeira
5:2
May 6, 2021 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Afogados da Ingazeira
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Freitas Barreto P. C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedro Bortoluzo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Afogados da Ingazeira Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 95 / 100
Afogados da Ingazeira 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Afogados da Ingazeira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Santa Cruz scored in 62% of their last 37 games.

Defensive concern: Afogados da Ingazeira conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Santa Cruz remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz

(Home)
25 Jul
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Figueirense
12 Jul
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 2
Santa Cruz
04 Jul
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Ituano
27 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 3
Santa Cruz
20 Jun
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Ypiranga FC
Page 1 of 8

Afogados da Ingazeira

(Away)
22 Feb
Jaguar
1 : 0
Afogados da Ingazeira
15 Feb
Afogados da Ingazeira
1 : 1
Maguary
09 Feb
Nautico
4 : 0
Afogados da Ingazeira
05 Feb
Decisao
1 : 1
Afogados da Ingazeira
29 Jan
Afogados da Ingazeira
1 : 1
Central SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sport Recife970216:721
2Retro962116:320
3Nautico962112:420
4Santa Cruz961216:719
5Central SC933314:1512
6Afogados da Ingazeira931513:2110
7Maguary924312:1010
8Petrolina92439:1010
9CA Porto91089:233
10Flamengo Arcoverde90188:251
Promotion - Pernambucano 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pernambucano 2024 (Play Offs)