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Santa Rosa vs Bragantino PA

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Abelardo Conduru
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Rosa play Bragantino PA in the Paraense. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santa Rosa averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Bragantino PA averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Santa Rosa won 2, Bragantino PA won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Santa Rosa and 1.38 for Bragantino PA. This points to a Bragantino PA double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Santa Rosa
15%
Draws
43%
Bragantino PA
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bragantino PA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Rosa picked up more points recently compared to Bragantino PA.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Santa Rosa Clean Sheet 17%
Bragantino PA Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 51%
Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Rosa Bragantino PA
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 9
Draws 4 8
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 0.57 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Paraense
Santa Rosa vs Bragantino PA
1:0
Apr 3, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Bragantino PA vs Santa Rosa
4:1
Jan 25, 2025 Paraense
Bragantino PA vs Santa Rosa
1:0
Feb 18, 2024 Paraense
Bragantino PA vs Santa Rosa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Rosa Compare

Top Goalscorer Flavio Cabral
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Bragantino PA Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Rosa 41 / 100
Bragantino PA 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Rosa Bragantino PA

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bragantino PA or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santa Rosa attacking → ← attacking Bragantino PA

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Rosa scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Bragantino PA let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Santa Rosa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Bragantino PA lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 35
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cameta63218:411
2Capitao Poco63129:610
3Paysandu PA63126:410
4Aguia De Maraba63128:710
5Remo62409:510
6Tuna Luso63033:59
7Castanhal62224:58
8Santa Rosa62134:77
9Sao Raimundo PA61326:86
10Amazonia IFC61327:116
11Bragantino PA61236:75
12Sao Francisco61234:55