Sport Picks

Brazil

Carioca B1 2024

Paduano EC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sao Goncalo play Paduano EC in the Carioca B1 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Goncalo averaged 1.03 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. Paduano EC averaged 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Goncalo won 1, Paduano EC won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 22, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Sao Goncalo and 0.98 for Paduano EC. This points to a Sao Goncalo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Sao Goncalo

35%

Draws

30%

Paduano EC

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sao Goncalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Sao Goncalo picked up more points recently compared to Paduano EC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.98 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 53%

Over 2.5 Goals 29%

Over 3.5 Goals 17%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Sao Goncalo Clean Sheet 23%

Paduano EC Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 48%

Second Half Goal 50%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sao Goncalo	Paduano EC
Matches Played	33	22
Wins	12	9
Draws	11	3
Losses	10	10
Goals Scored	1.03	0.95
Goals Conceded	0.79	1.05
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2024 Carioca B1

Paduano EC vs Sao Goncalo

Possession: 54% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Nov 17, 2024 Carioca B1

Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC

Possession: 59% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Oct 19, 2024 Carioca B1

Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Goncalo 36 / 100

Paduano EC 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sao Goncalo Paduano EC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sao Goncalo or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +26.1%

4.35

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Goncalo attacking → ← attacking Paduano EC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Goncalo scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

Paduano EC let in goals in 64% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Sao Goncalo went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Paduano EC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 30

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.83

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Artsul	8	5	1	2	10:5	16
2	Paduano EC	8	5	1	2	6:3	16
3	Sao Goncalo	8	3	4	1	10:2	13
4	Perolas Negras	8	3	2	3	8:9	11
5	Friburguense	8	2	4	2	5:4	10
6	Nova Cidade	8	2	4	2	10:11	10
7	Sao Cristovao	8	2	1	5	3:9	7
8	Serrano FC	8	1	3	4	5:9	6
9	Belford Roxo	8	0	6	2	5:10	6