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Sao Jose EC vs EC Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Paulista. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. EC Sao Bernardo have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Sao Jose EC have conceded 1.38 and scored 1.13. Head-to-head, Sao Jose EC have won 3 to EC Sao Bernardo's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 26, 2023, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.50) back Sao Jose EC to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Sao Jose EC
22%
Draws
18%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Sao Jose EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • EC Sao Bernardo haven't matched Sao Jose EC's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Sao Jose EC's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Sao Jose EC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Jose EC, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sao Jose EC have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 16%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Jose EC EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 5 11
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2023 Copa Paulista
Sao Jose EC vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:0
Jul 22, 2023 Copa Paulista
EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Jose EC
2:3
Jan 28, 2023 Paulista A3
Sao Jose EC vs EC Sao Bernardo
0:0
Feb 23, 2022 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Jose EC
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Jose EC 57 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Jose EC EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Jose EC found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: EC Sao Bernardo conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Sao Jose EC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao Jose EC VS EC Sao Bernardo
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Jose EC

(Home)
15 Apr
Sao Jose EC
5 : 0
Sertaozinho
11 Apr
Juventus-SP
1 : 0
Sao Jose EC
29 Mar
Ferroviaria
4 : 1
Sao Jose EC
25 Mar
Sao Jose EC
0 : 1
Ferroviaria
18 Mar
Sao Jose EC
1 : 0
Juventus-SP
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EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
04 Apr
Marilia
3 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
28 Mar
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Marilia
21 Mar
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 2
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Mar
EC Sao Bernardo
0 : 3
Portuguesa Santista
11 Mar
Bandeirante
2 : 2
EC Sao Bernardo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Marilia11001:03
2Linense10100:01
3Bandeirante10100:01
4Gremio Prudente10010:10
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Comercial11002:03
2Uniao Sao Joao00000:00
3Piracicaba00000:00
4Noroeste10010:20
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Paulista11001:03
2Juventus-SP00000:00
3Osasco Sporting00000:00
4Primavera EC10010:10
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santo Andre00000:00
2Sao Caetano00000:00
3EC Sao Bernardo00000:00
4Sao Jose EC00000:00
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)