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Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine

USA USA

USL League One Premier Sports Campus, Lakewood Ranch, FL
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Walker A.
22'
Armour A.
31'
Karani S.

AI Match Summary

The USL League One game between Sarasota Paradise and Portland Hearts of Pine finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sarasota Paradise.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Sarasota Paradise
40%
Draws
29%
Portland Hearts of Pine
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Portland Hearts of Pine come out ahead of Sarasota Paradise on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular USL League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 11%
Portland Hearts of Pine Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarasota Paradise Portland Hearts of Pine
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 8 9
Draws 3 7
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1 2
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Club Friendly
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarasota Paradise Compare

Top Goalscorer Walker A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Portland Hearts of Pine Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarasota Paradise 30 / 100
Portland Hearts of Pine 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarasota Paradise Portland Hearts of Pine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Portland Hearts of Pine conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Sarasota Paradise has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Portland Hearts of Pine has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sarasota Paradise VS Portland Hearts of Pine
1 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarasota Paradise

(Home)
26 Jul
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2
Sarasota Paradise
11 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
0 : 5
Miami FC
08 Jul
Greenville Triumph
0 : 0
Sarasota Paradise
03 Jul
Richmond Kickers
0 : 0
Sarasota Paradise
21 Jun
Corpus Christi FC
4 : 1
Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 6

Portland Hearts of Pine

(Away)
26 Jul
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2
Sarasota Paradise
22 Jul
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2
Union Omaha
18 Jul
Athletic Club Boise
2 : 1
Portland Hearts of Pine
11 Jul
Portland Hearts of Pine
2 : 1
New York Cosmos
03 Jul
FC Naples
2 : 3
Portland Hearts of Pine
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Union Omaha18112529:2135
2Charlotte Independence17103439:2633
3One Knoxville17103430:1733
4Spokane Velocity18102625:2232
5Athletic Club Boise1893627:2530
6Forward Madison1592429:1529
7AV Alta FC1978426:2129
8Chattanooga Red Wolves1591528:1728
9Fort Wayne1776425:1727
10Corpus Christi FC1857621:2622
11Portland Hearts of Pine1755726:2820
12Westchester SC1854928:2519
13Sarasota Paradise18531017:2818
14FC Naples18521119:3017
15Greenville Triumph1542914:2514
16Richmond Kickers17331113:3312
17New York Cosmos17321218:3811
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)